Seven Predictions for Tech in 2025

AI's ups and downs, a potential c-suite shakeup, and a TikTok surprise. What might be coming in the new year.

This past year in tech could be strangely described as a year of calm, sustained progress.

After a wild 2023 that featured OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s ousting and return, NVIDIA’s ascent, and FTX’s downfall, the story of 2024 was much steadier.

This year, AI models and applications advanced meaningfully, adding deeper memories, longer context windows, faster computation, broadly available video generation, and improved intelligence. Meanwhile, technologies like autonomous driving, mixed reality, brain computer interfaces, and even quantum computing surged forward, creating new energy around the cutting edge.

Looking ahead to 2025, the question of whether companies can generate a return on investment — especially in generative AI — will grow more prominent. That leads this year’s set of seven predictions for the year ahead.

A Prominent Company (Or Two) Will Loudly Give Up On Generative AI

GenAI is a powerful technology, but it’s not for everyone. Over the past two years, a large number of companies have invested significantly in figuring out whether AI models, and bots like ChatGPT and Microsoft Copilot, could give them an edge. Now, the proof of concept period is ending. Some companies will push their pilots into production, others will come to the conclusion that GenAI is a powerful technology, but currently not worth it in their use case. And at least one company that’s tried and failed to get GenAI to work will vocally give up on it in a front page news story.

Mustafa Suleyman Leaves Microsoft

DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman joined Microsoft this year to become CEO of Microsoft AI. His remit was to improve Microsoft’s Copilot bot and to advance the company’s consumer AI products. Suleyman is an impressive, driven leader, but it’s fair to wonder whether Microsoft actually just needs an integrator to build OpenAI’s latest technology into its products. Already, reports have indicated that Suleyman’s team has clashed with OpenAI, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he exits in 2025.

TikTok Stays

This is more of a gut feeling, but I just can’t see Donald Trump allowing the TikTok ban to go forward (or continue) under his incoming administration. Trump has recently spoken warmly of TikTok, opposed the ban on the campaign trail, and has connections to TikTok investor David Yass. To me, the most likely scenario, is Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.

Bluesky Hype Fades

I’ve seen enough promising young social networks rise and fall to keep expectations in check for the latest “next big thing.” The early days of social networks tend to be vibrant, fun, and chaotic. People invest ungodly amounts of time in them, hoping to build large audiences amid a follower land grab. Then, so much content hits the feed that everyone sees their reach decline. And the creators who haven’t built the largest audiences lose interest, making it less fun for their followers. Then, the hype fades. I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.

Social Media Starts to Feel Less Relevant

Over the past few years, social networks have done two big things 1) Divided their audiences up among more players, and 2) Moved away from news. Apps you once used to find out what was going on in your community, country, and around the world started to ignore your follow signal and began showing you what they thought you’d spend time with. Out went the local reporter, in came the Costco guys. These social networks are sacrificing urgency for engagement, and there’s a hidden cost to that. There will be some exceptions, but the ‘global town squares’ of ol’ will start feel less relevant to important, global events.

2025: Year Of The Brain Computer Interface

Noland Arbaugh became Neuraalink’s first patient in January, and the company has since done at least one more implantation with plans to expand further in 2025. Next year, we’ll meet many more Noland Arbaughs and the technology will begin to capture the popular imagination. Other companies outside Neuralink will push the boundaries even further. The concept of restoring vision in the blind will have people buzzing.

“Sometimes I Forget I'm Paralyzed.” How Neuralink’s First Patient Found Freedom by Connecting His Brain to a Computer.

The Vision Pro Does Not Stage a Comeback

Apple’s mixed reality device has been a disappointment and so the company is planning to build a lighter and cheaper version in late 2025. It’s not going to go well. At this point, the device is low on utility, lacking an enthusiastic developer community, with no meaningful user base. Apple will need to make Apple Intelligence work or it risks its two marquee launches in the past two years entering flop territory.

Building in the age of AI: Startup lessons for early-stage growth (sponsor)

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Accountability: How last year’s predictions turned out

In 2023, I made seven predictions for tech in 2024. Here’s how I did:

✅ Generative AI’s Next Steps Come Into Focus

I predicted we’d see models develop longer memories and hold a conversation across multiple sessions. That was right.

✅ Ilya Sutskever Leaves OpenAI

Ilya left in May and started Safe Superintelligence, raising $1 billion in September.

❌ The Year of Mixed Reality

Despite some cool advances like Meta’s Orion, mixed reality was mostly an afterthought in 2024.

❌ Elon Musk Sells X

Musk kept X and somehow made it look like a good investment.

✅ Meta Returns to $1 trillion

Meta returned to a $1 trillion market cap and then added another $500 billion for good measure.

❌ NVIDIA Ends The Year About Even

A prediction so bad I apologized in February.

How Exactly NVIDIA Is Pulling This Off

✅ Waymo runs away with the self-driving market

As of December 2024, Cruise is dead and Waymo is expanding rapidly.

Result: 4 of 7.

That’s it for Big Technology in 2024. See you next year! And if you have a prediction for 2025, drop it in the comments below.

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My book Always Day One digs into the tech giants’ inner workings, focusing on automation and culture. I’d be thrilled if you’d give it a read. You can find it here.

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