Trade War? Tariffs? How A Trump Election Would Change Tech
Breaking down how Trump might impact Apple, semiconductors, and ecommerce should he be elected and implement the tariffs he’s proposed.
The tech industry is dependent on global trade. Semiconductors, phones, and items in ecommerce shops typically cross borders before reaching their destinations. And when the global supply chain is mostly functional, it keeps inflation down, boosting a stock market that’s delivered outsized gains for big tech.
But this system’s stability is now uncertain with the U.S. presidential election approaching next week. Both candidates are more protectionist than the free trade consensus that’s held for the past two decades. But Donald Trump is on another level. The former President could “radically remake world trade,” the WSJ recently said, with tariffs of 20% on all imports, and potentially 60% on imports from China.
“Tariff,” Trump said last month, “is the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.”
Should Trump win, global trade will likely become tech’s top issue, a policy matter unlike the social media manipulation stories that followed previous elections. Here’s a realistic picture of what might unfold after the election, based on interviews with trade experts studying the policies: