A Permanent AI-Driven Underclass? Maybe, But Likely Not.
Don't buy the prophesies of economic doom. They're impossibly pessimistic about human nature.
There’s been a rush of CTOs heading to Anthropic over the past few years. The former CTOs of Instagram, Box, Adept, and Workday have traded their lofty titles for “member of the technical staff” designations, a low-key flex and perhaps a signal of where AI is headed.
As Anthropic (and its peers) have loaded up on talent, there’s been a rumbling within Silicon Valley that the current AI wave will create a new, “permanent underclass.” The theory, according to a recent New York Times opinion piece, posits that AI superintelligence will enrich those building and funding it. Those outside “will be rendered useless and unemployable, left to live off welfare scraps.” These CTOs, then, are perhaps demonstrating a conviction that AI will swallow everything and are moving to enjoy the spoils.
It’s a tight narrative, but I’m not buying it. While it’s worth spending time anticipating AI’s potential for harm (and we certainly have here), this “permanent underclass” theory is impossibly pessimistic about human nature. If AI tools are powerful enough to create such bounty for their owners, then they will also be powerful enough for individuals with ideas to put them to use.
Unless AI’s rise is accompanied by an edict that people can no longer pursue new companies or initiatives, then the technology can’t be a subjugation machine without some accompanying rise in empowerment.
Unless you’re brutally pessimistic about humanity’s ability to take initiative, there’s no way this underclass takes shape. This isn’t to imply that the rise of AI will be great for everyone. But the economic doom story, which clicks extremely well, is simply an incomplete thought.
As for the CTOs, it seems the simplest explanation is most probable: Anthropic (and its AI peers) present a once-in-a-generation opportunity for technical leaders. The technology is improving rapidly, and revenue is growing exponentially. So those with the ability are getting a chance to drive a new technology with nice economics attached. As for the rest of us? I’d like to think we have a say in it.
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The Intelligence Report
Musk vs. OpenAI trial started its second week today, Greg Brockman testified.
Semiconductor money: AMD will report earnings on Tuesday, ARM will report on Wednesday.
ServiceNow’s Knowledge conference kicks off this week in Las Vegas. I’ll be there!
AI is outperforming doctors in some situations, The Guardian reports.
EU regulators are now looking at cloud services and AI, per Reuters.
Accenture is buying Microsoft Copilot for its 743,000 employees.
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark says AI models are about to self-improve
A Big May Underway
Mark these dates on the calendar:
May 6: Anthropic’s Code with Claude developer conference in SF
May 19-20: Google’s I/O developer conference
May 20: Nvidia earnings
And, further out in June:
June 8-12 Apple’s WWDC
Big Technology Podcast Friday Edition: OpenAI’s User Growth Miss, Musk vs. Altman, Prediction Market Ban
Ranjan Roy from Margins is back for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news. We cover: 1) OpenAI misses revenue and user projections, per WSJ 2) Why can’t ChatGPT break the 1 billion user mark? 3) Is consumer AI not working? 4) Ranjan makes the case for consumer AI 5) Musk vs. OpenAI at trial 6) Potential outcomes of the case 7) Musk admits distillation? 8) Cloud services crush earnings 9) U.S. Senators ban themselves from trading prediction markets 10) CBS Sports’ shameless gambling article.
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